Inflation Protection

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Inflation Protection Model Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Review: February 2024

Publication date: March 1, 2024

Current portfolio holdings

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Executive summary

Welcome to the Inflation Protection Model Portfolio!
With the publication of this first report, we are officially initiating the portfolio.
For each position, we provide a summary description of the business and an explanation of the investment thesis.
We then move into a general discussion of the investment approach that drives our Inflation Protection strategy.
At the end of this report (and all future Monthly Portfolio Reviews), we provide updated tables and charts with important information related to valuation, performance and company earnings expectations.

Business descriptions and investment theses

Brown-Forman (BF.B)

Description: Founded in 1870 with headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, Brown-Forman produces and distributes alcoholic beverages. The business is most known for its whiskey brands, including Jack Daniels and Woodford Reserve, but also participates in the tequila, vodka, wine and gin categories. Brown-Forman generates more than half its sales outside the United States.

Thesis: Brown-Forman’s strength is in brown spirits, where entry barriers are higher due to more complex manufacturing processes and greater brand loyalty. With established and developing brands in a favorable segment of the spirits market, Brown-Forman is a proven operator with a runway of growth in both domestic and international markets, including faster growing emerging markets which now represents about one-fifth of total sales. The company has also entered into a successful partnership with Coca-Cola in the fast growing “ready to drink” category, with a Jack & Coke product set.

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Description: Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership warehouses and e-commerce websites that offer members low prices on a limited selection of nationally-branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The company has nearly 900 locations around the world, including 600 in the United States. Over 70 million households are members.

Thesis: Costco is one of the largest and most successful retailers in the world with an innovative business model that enables the company to deliver exceptional value to its highly loyal customer base. Costco customers, a mix of individual small businesses and consumers with an above average income profile, pay annual membership dues that represent about half the company’s operating profit. Renewal rates exceed 90%. While Costco tends to be awarded a premium valuation, it should continue to enjoy a long runway of organic and square footage growth.

Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Description: Founded in 2007 in Midland, Texas, Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company that acquires, develops, explores and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves. The Upstream segment focuses on the Permian Basin in West Texas. The Midstream Services segment operates in the Midland and Delaware Basins.

Thesis: Diamondback Energy is a low-cost, well-managed independent oil and gas exploration and production player that offers leverage to rising energy prices and capital discipline. Diamondback has committed to returning 75% of free cash flow to shareholders as dividends and/or share repurchases. In addition to a strong long-term track record of free cash flow generation and growth, the company has shown an aptitude in M&A, creating value through acquisitions as well as divestitures.

Freeport-McMoran (FCX)

Description: Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Freeport-McMoRan engages in the mining of copper, gold and molybdenum. The company has mining operations in North America (Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico), South America (Peru and Chile) and Indonesia. It also runs copper conversion facilities, which includes a refinery, rod mills and a specialty copper facility, and smelting and refining facilities.

Thesis: Freeport-McMoRan is a global leader in copper mining and represents an excellent vehicle to play long-term appreciation in the copper price. The company’s current asset portfolio offers a stable base of production with both near-term and long-term growth prospects. Declining capital expenditures from the completion of a major project sets the stage for increased capital returns. While potential China weakness affects near-term copper demand and pricing, long-term structural trends suggest a tightening global market with limited capacity expansion opportunities.

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)

Description: Headquartered in Eagle, Idaho, Lamb Weston is a leading global supplier of frozen potato, sweet potato, appetizer and vegetable products with a presence in over 100 countries. The company has manufacturing operations throughout the Pacific Northwest with a focus on the Columbia River Basin, the world’s most productive potato-growing region.

Thesis: Since its November 2016 spin-off from Conagra Foods, Lamb Weston has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and food industry peers. Lamb Weston is the number one provider of frozen potato products (principally, French fries) in the United States and number two in the world. French fries are the most popular and one of the highest margin food items sold in American restaurants. Lamb Weston offers an attractive long-term earnings growth story underpinned by low-to-mid single digit demand growth, tight global capacity, premiumization and scale advantages.

TransDigm Group (TDG)

Description: TransDigm Group designs, produces and supplies aircraft components. The company’s products are used throughout commercial and military aircraft fleets and include actuators and controls, ignition systems, pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized motors and generators, batteries and chargers, locking devices, engineered connectors, cockpit displays and many other types of equipment.

Thesis: TransDigm is a differentiated aerospace and defense supplier that focuses on proprietary aftermarket components for aircraft designs that support multi-decade revenue opportunities with high margins. TransDigm is committed to a “private equity”-like business culture focused on efficiency, value-based pricing, customer service and shareholder value creation. The company’s robust historical growth is fueled by a disciplined acquisition engine that concentrates on its core business.

Visa (V)

Description: Founded in 1958, Visa provides digital payment services. The company’s products and services include debit cards, credit cards, prepaid products, commercial payment solutions and automated teller machines. Visa manages a complex global network that connects consumers, merchants, financial institutions, strategic partners and government entities.

Thesis: As the largest retail electronic payments network in the world, Visa is an entrenched player in a structurally growing market as electronic payments displace cash globally. The company is able to leverage its central position in the payments ecosystem to develop adjacent businesses around consulting, analytics, fraud management, security, merchant solutions and processing. With a long-term track record of earnings growth and value creation, Visa benefits from inflation through its claim to a small but recurring slice of nominal consumer spending.

Vulcan Materials (VMC)

Description: Vulcan Materials is the largest producer of construction aggregates in the United States, including crushed stone, sand and gravel. Vulcan also manufactures and distributes downstream construction materials like asphalt and concrete. The company is a key supplier to infrastructure, residential and commercial end markets.

Thesis: Vulcan Materials is one of a handful of listed companies in the world that offer investors meaningful exposure to the American construction aggregates market. Vulcan's footprint of quarries and production facilities benefits from superior structural growth opportunity with its sunbelt orientation. Due to geological scarcity and environmental regulations, Vulcan has and likely will continue to benefit from organic pricing power even during periods of declining demand.

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND)

Description: Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Floor & Decor Holdings is a specialty retailer and commercial flooring distributor that operates out of more than 200 warehouse-format locations in 36 states. The company’s products include in-stock hard-surface flooring, such as tile, wood, laminate, vinyl and natural stone, as well as decorative accessories, wall tile and installation materials.

Thesis: Floor & Decor is a rapidly growing specialty retailer focused on hard surface flooring. With no significant scaled competition, F&D is pursuing a highly fragmented and attractive niche within retail that offers white space for growth and significant immunity from e-commerce risk. The company has a disciplined expansion strategy that resembles other highly successful category killers and intends to more than double its store base within the next decade. F&D earnings will also benefit from maturation of its existing store base.

Franco-Nevada (FNV)

Description: Based in Toronto, Canada, Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company with over 400 assets around the world. A majority of revenue is derived from gold mining operations, with approximately 90% of its operations based in the Americas. The business model emphasizes gold price and exploration optionality and a capital allocation policy focused on dividends and portfolio growth.

Thesis: As the largest publicly traded gold royalty company, Franco-Nevada provides investors the opportunity to gain an alternative form of exposure to gold as an asset class with less risk and financial and operating leverage than traditional mining businesses. The shares were heavily penalized by investors following an interruption of production at a Panamanian mine in 2023. Despite the setback, which appears fully priced in, FNV shares have still substantially outperformed gold over the past 10 years.

Permian Resources (PR)

Description: Headquartered in Midland, Texas, Permian Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company is now the largest pure-play Delaware Basin exploration and production company with more than 400,000 net acres and approximately 68,000 net royalty acres. Permian Resources is the second largest pure-play E&P operator in the broader Permian Basin.

Thesis: Permian Resources was formed in 2022 through the merger of two E&P peers operating in the Permian Basin, Centennial Development, which was already public, and Colgate Energy Partners III. The company has an attractive asset base with more than 10 years of estimated inventory runway and a financially aligned management team that is focused on free cash flow generation, shareholder returns and value creation. Permian Resources has opportunities as both a consolidator within its territory and as a potential consolidation candidate for a larger player.

WESCO International (WCC)

Description: Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, WESCO International is a global provider of business-to-business distribution, logistics services and supply chain solutions. The company distributes approximately 1.5 million different products to customers including most Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized businesses, government agencies, institutions and utility providers.

Thesis: WESCO is a distributor and solutions provider to three end markets that have above-average long-term growth prospects: Electrical & Electronic Solutions (EES), Communications and Security Solutions (CSS), and Utility & Broadband Solutions (UBS). The company is a play on several secular growth trends including digitalization, grid modernization, electrification, onshoring, automation and AI. Through organic growth, M&A and strategic investments, WESCO can continue to deliver incremental market share gains, margin expansion, double digit profit growth and growing capital returns.

Investing for inflation protection

Until 2021, inflation was really only a minor concern for American investors for several decades. The inflationary surge that began in the first half of 2021 was unlike anything investors had witnessed in approximately forty years.

The consumer price index (CPI) touched 9% in June 2022, which was a level not seen since 1981, Ronald Reagan’s first year in office. While year over year inflation rates have since retreated from their mid-2022 peak, debate rages over where we are headed from here.

Monthly CPI (1983-2023)

It is conceivable that we might go back to inflation rates that are at or below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% for the PCE Index, which it formally adopted in 2012. (Average monthly CPI was 2.85% from 1983 to 2023.)

If this optimistic scenario were to play out, it would likely be because Covid-related supply chain disruptions, as well as other economic frictions related to the rapid closing and re-opening of the global economy, produced short-term inefficiencies that just needed some time to work out.

Perhaps this most recent bout of inflation will indeed turn out to be “transitory” as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen initially advised us—a one-time problem caused by an unusual event, even if it takes quite a bit longer to sort out than she first anticipated.

A less optimistic interpretation is that the current inflation problem is rooted in monetary and fiscal policy, rather than short-term structural frictions or the post-Ukraine spike in oil and gas prices. This would suggest we may be facing a more stubborn problem and that the “old normal” will not necessarily return.

Those who agree with Milton Friedman’s famous assertion that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” emphasize the vast scale of monetary expansion that has taken place over the supply chain story. The risk is that we have simply printed a lot of money and, in doing so, let the inflation genie out of the bottle.

U.S. Monetary Base (2013-2023)

As 2024 begins, the market is clearly not pricing in this more pessimistic interpretation. The market seems to have confidence that the Fed’s restrictive policy will do the trick. Both bonds and stocks have rallied as long-term inflation expectations have come down considerably.

Current market optimism is reflected in an important indicator of inflation expectations, what is known as the “5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate” (which represents an average of what inflation is anticipated to be for the five-year period beginning in five years). This metric is inferred from the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) relative to standard Treasuries.

What is particularly interesting about the “5-year, 5-year” is how stable it has actually been throughout this recent inflation ordeal. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a policy inflation rate target of 2%. Pre-Covid, bond investors were pricing future inflation rates at around this level.

Inflation expectations then fell sharply during Covid and the related market crash and briefly pierced 1%. By the end of 2020, however, we were back around 2%. And even as CPI nearly reached double digits in 2022, long-term inflation expectations never really got much higher than 2.5%. The 5-year, 5-year closed 2023 at 2.2%.

“5-year, 5-year” inflation expectations (2018-2023)

Notwithstanding the market’s recent confidence, inflation is one of the least understood subjects in investing and economics. While the true causes of this most recent inflation flare-up remain up for debate, the answers to these questions may not even matter. Changes of a technological, social and political nature are underway that could drastically change the inflation playbook anyway.

A new paradigm of inflation risk?

Consider, for example, recent discussions of “Modern Monetary Theory,” or MMT. The Australian economist Bill Mitchell is credited with coining the phrase in 2008, as the global financial crisis sparked an unprecedented wave of monetary expansion via quantitative easing.

At the risk of oversimplification, the central premise of MMT is that sovereign nations operating with their own fiat currencies can directly fund government expenditures by printing the necessary funds. (Fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar or the Euro are linked neither to commodities like gold nor other currencies.)

Taxation can then be used, so the theory goes, as a tool to control inflation in the event such unrestricted money printing becomes a problem. Under an MMT regime, the government does not have to bargain with taxpayers through the democratic political process to fund its operations but rather can just tell the central bank to cover its costs directly.

Unsurprisingly, American politicians who favor a substantial expansion of the federal government (and are not terribly concerned about the opinions of taxpaying citizens on this topic) have warmed up to this novel framework. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has stated that MMT should become “a larger part of our conversation.”

I think the first thing that we need to do is kind of break the mistaken idea that taxes pay for a hundred percent of government expenditure. - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

AOC is open to MMT

With politicians around the world promoting the idea that trillions of dollars of investments are necessary to address the existential risk of climate change, there is a natural interest in restructuring government financing in a way that bypasses taxation as the primary funding mechanism.

An independent central bank and a legislative branch that operate with some kind of discipline, whether it is internally or externally imposed, are necessary for price stability. Throughout history, the temptation has always existed for governments to overspend on wars and other causes that ultimately bring down the regime.

In the era of metallic money, kings would literally debase the coin of the realm by mixing in less valuable elements. In the era of fiat money, the central bank simply has to be coopted into the service of whoever is in charge. As we move into an era of digital currencies, with open-ended consequences, it is only rational to have concerns about the long-term inflation outlook.

We also need to pay very close attention to potentially shifting Federal Reserve mandates that threaten to undermine its independence and historical commitment to price stability. Consider the Federal Reserve Racial and Economic Equity Act, proposed legislation that was reintroduced in August 2023 by Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Maxine Waters, with ten co-sponsors in the Senate.

The Fed can and should take deliberate actions to help reverse the serious racial gap in our economy. - Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Equity advocate Elizabeth Warren

“Equity” in a political context is an amorphous concept that can be weaponized to justify any number of government interventions. Legislative efforts in the name of equity to modify the Federal Reserve’s current dual mandate of subduing inflation while maximizing employment could seriously dilute the Fed’s commitment to keeping inflation down.

Climate change, for example, is often framed as an equity issue because of alleged disparate impacts (in addition to being presented as an existential threat to all of humanity).

With the ESG movement, climate change is the lead argument used to justify the prioritization of political and social goals over a corporation’s obligations to its stockholders. It is not hard to imagine our central bank’s priorities being similarly reordered as an extension of this movement.

While the impacts of climate change will be felt by all Americans, they will be deeper and longer lasting among the poor, people of color and other vulnerable populations. - Dr. Rachel Levine, Assistant Secretary for Health

Admiral Rachel Levine

Why seek inflation protection investments?

The future is obviously unpredictable, especially the political environment. While bond markets may be quite comfortable at the moment that inflation can be contained on a long-term basis, expectations can quickly shift.

One of the main objectives of any investor is to keep up with the continuous deterioration of the real purchasing power of his or her savings that inflation brings. Individuals may have specific circumstances that could make it even more imperative that they find a way to lean into inflation sensitive investments. For example, a retiree living on a fixed income, or someone who has a significant portfolio allocation to bonds.

One could simply be (very justifiably) concerned that the recent break with multi-decade inflation trends is not an anomaly but rather a harbinger of things to come, especially with central bank independence now being challenged so aggressively.

On the monetary policy front, there are also massive unknowns associated with cryptocurrency, the potential introduction of a digital dollar, and how these technology shifts will ultimately affect policy frameworks.

On the wage front, there are various arguments suggesting we have reached an inflection point. The rise of China since the 1990s dramatically expanded the productive capacity of the global economy and brought millions of laborers into the work force, which had a widely recognized disinflationary effect.

Political frictions with China mean we may now be entering a phase of deglobalization and onshoring. This puts upward pressure on wages, just as baby boomers are entering retirement age and leaving the workforce (a key reason for current low levels of unemployment). A potential confrontation with China over control of Taiwan could dramatically disrupt access to low-cost overseas labor.

On the commodity front, the decarbonization movement is shifting capital toward massive investments into a new global energy and industrial infrastructure that relies on increasingly scarce resources.

Through a variety of mechanisms from outright regulation and taxation to the soft pressure of ESG, the decarbonization movement is also discouraging capacity investments in the traditional energy sector and other carbon-emitting industries. This all points to a sustained squeeze on commodities from metals to fossil fuels.

If we are indeed headed into a new era of elevated inflation rates, the question becomes, what is the best way to position a portfolio towards such an outcome?

Is gold the answer?

A common inflation protection strategy is to buy gold. We do like gold as an asset class and believe it deserves some space in any portfolio. The central premise of gold as an inflation hedge is that it serves as a store of monetary value and has for thousands of years.

Gold is money; everything else is credit. - J.P. Morgan, speaking to Congress, 1912

J.P. Morgan

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted. - Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, speaking to Congress, 1999

Alan Greenspan

Gold investors appreciate that gold has a track record as a financial instrument that is over 5,000 years old. They also appreciate the metal’s unique physical attributes that make it almost the natural choice as a store of value.

Gold is one of the densest metals on the planet, and therefore you need only weigh it to authenticate it. It is inert and therefore does not rust, corrode or decay. It is scarce, with all the gold that has been discovered today theoretically able to fit inside a 23 meter by 23 meter cube (according to the U.S. Geological Survey). Gold is not easy to mine, and therefore supply growth tends to be only around 2% per year (and, unlike other commodities, supply growth is generally inelastic to price changes).

Setting aside the question of inflation protection, gold also has performed reasonably well as an investment. GLD, one of the primary ETFs that provide investors with exposure to gold, was introduced on November 18, 2004. From inception through year-end 2023, GLD delivered a 7.9% annualized return versus 9.6% for SPY (an ETF that tracks the S&P 500).

GLD vs. SPY (Nov. 2004 through year-end 2023)

Gold also tends to be less volatile than the stock market. Over the past 5 years, GLD has shown a standard deviation of about 15% versus 21% for the SPY. (Source: FactSet).

Gold as an asset class has generally performed well over time (notwithstanding its dramatic outperformance and subsequent collapse in the years following the Global Financial Crisis). In this sense, it has functioned well as a store of value over the long-term. But to be fair, as an actual inflation hedge, it has, especially in recent periods, not really delivered.

Gold tends to rise in periods of crisis, which are often periods of low inflation, due to an unexpected drop in demand. One of the reasons for this is the relationship to interest rates.

In periods of low interest rates, such as a recession or economic shock, the opportunity cost of owning gold is lower, which makes gold look more attractive. Conversely, when you can park your cash in money market funds and earn a decent interest rate, gold is less appealing.

In fact, during the biggest inflationary stress test in a generation, the three-year period from the end of 2020 through the end of 2023, GLD not only underperformed the SPY, but did not keep up with the Consumer Price Index, which increased over 17% during this time frame, versus a 7% total return for the GLD. SPY delivered a total return during this period of approximately 33%.

GLD vs. SPY (year-end 2020 through year-end 2023)

How about bonds?

While gold’s utility as an inflation hedge is debatable, we can assert with high confidence that bonds do not work (with perhaps a few potential exceptions). Bonds are, by their nature, securities that offer a fixed schedule of cash flows, sometimes long into the future. When inflation sets in, interest rates typically rise, and bonds decline in value.

Gold failed to keep pace with inflation from 2021 to 2023, but it at least generated a positive return. Long-term treasuries by contrast suffered their worst performance in decades. As reference, TLT, the widely owned ETF that tracks a long-term Treasury index, delivered a total return over the three-year period of approximately -33%.

TLT vs SPY (year-end 2020 through year-end 2023)

Even bonds that were specifically designed to protect investors in periods of inflation performed quite poorly.

As mentioned above, the federal government issues Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Whereas regular Treasuries have a fixed par value at maturity, the par value of TIPS is periodically adjusted on the basis of inflation rates. So when inflation is high, a TIPS investor will receive a larger amount at maturity than he otherwise would. (Of course, a certain amount of inflation is priced into these instruments at all times, so they will generally outperform Treasuries only if the market is underestimating the total amount of future inflation.)

TIPS did outperform standard long-term Treasuries (which as noted above performed very poorly) from 2021 to 2023, but returns were still very disappointing. TIP, an ETF that tracks a commonly used TIPS index, produced a -4% total return over the three-year period.

TIP vs. SPY (year-end 2020 through year-end 2023)

The reason TIPS did so poorly, despite the inflation protection mechanism, is that as the Fed pivoted towards a restrictive monetary policy in response to high inflation, real yields went up significantly. It was the expansion of real yields, the rate of return beyond expected inflation required by bond investors, that caused TIPS to lose so much market value.

This brings us to stocks, which were the clear winner (at least relative to gold and long-term bonds) in the 2021-2023 inflation stress test. Despite the terrible performance of the stock market in 2022 as the Fed became aggressively hawkish, over the three-year period, SPY meaningfully exceeded cumulative inflation. If we are in fact entering a new era of structurally higher inflation, there is a strong case to be made to be invested in equities.

Which stocks work in inflationary environments?

Stocks are ultimately ownership stakes in businesses that in most cases have the ability to raise prices and grow their cash flows along with nominal growth of the economy. In a fiat money world, business ownership is among the best ways to keep pace with the continuous erosion of purchasing power. Businesses operate in the nominal economy. When there is inflation, they are, very broadly speaking, able to pass it through to customers, which means their profits grow in line with inflation as well.

When it comes to inflation, however, not all stocks are created equal. Inflationary environments create a lot of puts and takes that impact share prices.

To understand how individual stocks are likely to be affected by high levels of inflation, it is necessary to think through the impact on 4 main components of the business model: Revenue, Expenses, Assets and Liabilities.

Revenue. A business that can increase prices in response to inflationary pressures without sacrificing volumes is well-positioned for inflation. Sales can adjust quickly to offset rising input costs. But many businesses do not have this ability. In some cases, higher prices could cause their customers to shift their purchasing habits (for example, a retailer of discretionary goods losing share to a discount grocery store as cash-strapped consumers focus on necessities). Certain businesses have their revenue based on fixed rate contracts; these bond-like companies may offer more stability in recessions but tend to do poorly in inflationary contexts.
Expenses. To understand whether inflation will squeeze or enhance profits, it is important to understand whether operating expenses are more vulnerable to inflation than sales. A business that provides inflation protection will be able to raise prices at least on par with, if not faster, than operating costs. But it varies on a case by case basis whether a particular business will see its costs outpace or lag inflation relative to its sales.
Assets. Is a company built around a reserve of physical or intangible assets that will appreciate in nominal value as inflation courses through the economy? Or does it have rapidly depleting assets that need to be replaced, at higher and higher cost? Companies built around scarce resources that do not need to be replenished continuously are likely to fare better in inflationary contexts.
Liabilities. Financial debt in the face of inflation is a double-edged sword. To the extent a company has a lot of debt, inflation diminishes the real value of those obligations over time. For the same reason bond investors hate inflation, bond issuers like it. On the other hand, as we have recently observed, inflation generally leads to higher interest rates. Depending on the maturity schedule of a company’s debt load, its exposure to fixed versus floating rate debt and other variables, a company might find that the interest rate effect makes rising the cost of servicing debt extremely harmful to earnings and cash flow. Other types of liabilities, like leases, need to be considered as well.

Investors concerned about structurally higher rates of inflation in the future should strongly consider the value of stocks as an inflation hedge, relative to other options. The next step is to think carefully about how to design a stock portfolio that might disproportionately benefit from inflationary trends. This is best accomplished by taking a close look at the core elements of each business model and assessing their inflation sensitivity.

The 76research Inflation Protection Model Portfolio emphasizes business models that are expected to perform well on a relative basis in periods of elevated inflation. Holdings are typically drawn from industries based on supply constrained real assets, including commodity and energy businesses, or companies that otherwise demonstrate superior pricing power. The portfolio may from time to time include certain ETFs when broader asset class opportunities emerge that align with the theme. Drawing from an investable universe of expected inflation beneficiaries, specific holdings are chosen based on valuation and general business quality, growth and risk considerations.