76report

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September 11, 2024
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76report

September 11, 2024

Oracle Delivers Impressive AI-Driven Growth

Shares of Oracle (ORCL) rose 11% yesterday, following the company’s first quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2025. ORCL surpassed analyst expectations across metrics, “very confidently” reaffirmed full year revenue growth guidance, and discussed key milestones related to its AI growth strategy.


As a reminder, we added ORCL to our American Resilience Model Portfolio and published our discussion of the stock in the 76report on July 12, 2024 (available here). We emphasized that ORCL’s relatively modest valuation understated its strong prospects. We also explained our view that ORCL represented a compelling approach to the AI opportunity set, versus more aggressively valued stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA).


Since the position was initiated on July 12, shares of ORCL have returned approximately 8% while the broader market, especially tech stocks, has struggled. Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 returned -2%, the S&P Technology Sector Index returned -10%, and NVDA returned -16%.

Investment thesis confirmed


While ORCL shares have advanced somewhat, we remain confident in our long-term investment thesis and are encouraged by a number of important developments.


In July, we highlighted that ORCL was unique among cloud infrastructure providers by virtue of its dominant position in relational databases. We also noted that ORCL was differentiating itself as a strong alternative cloud services provider for enterprises that seek vendor diversification.


In addition to strong financial results, ORCL announced a new partnership with Amazon Web Services that demonstrates both the importance of its strength in databases and the opportunity it has to partner with other leading cloud players. The two companies formally announced a new initiative that “will provide customers with a unified experience between Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and AWS, offering simplified database administration, billing, and unified customer support.”


ORCL now has cloud database partnerships with Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN), which the company expects “will turbocharge the growth of our database business for years to come.”


Investing intelligently in AI


With 162 cloud data centers live or under construction, ORCL continues with its ambitious plans to build one of the “most powerful artificial neural networks in the world.”


ORCL is investing heavily in data centers but prudently within the context of robust free cash flow generation.


Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, a pace that is expected to be roughly double last year’s. Yet ORCL reported free cash flow generation of more than $11 billion on a trailing 12 month basis, repurchased approximately $150 million of stock during the quarter, and has paid out some $4.4 billion of dividends over the past year.


We took note of one particularly interesting disclosure which demonstrates the critical role of energy generation as AI infrastructure is built out. ORCL has recently received permitting approval to build a large data center that will be powered by three small modular nuclear reactors. The age of nuclear data centers has arrived.


On the earnings call, ORCL founder Larry Ellison also provided useful color about applications that Oracle database technology, infused with generative AI capabilities, will offer within the heath care sector.

I was at Stanford with my son one time, and it took three people, three different physicians to actually be able to find his X-rays. This is how you find the X-rays for Larry Ellison. You say, Oracle, please show me Larry Ellison’s latest X-rays. It’s a voice interface. You just ask for them. You don’t worry about – how do you log on? Well, you look at the computer and it recognizes your face and it recognizes your voice, it knows you’re the doctor and you’re authorized to look at that. All the authorization is done with AI. - Larry Ellison (9/9/2024)

We continue to view ORCL as exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on rapidly emerging technological advancements in AI. At less than 25x earnings, there is significant potential for multiple expansion as the market continues to gain conviction in the growth trajectory.  

Oracle (ORCL): Company Snapshot

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